Crazy Crapper Bets
Crapper Bet True Odds Casino Odds Casino Edge
Hard 4 or 10 8 to 1 7 to 1 11.111%
Hard 6 or 8 10 to 1 9 to 1 9.090%
11 or 3 17 to 1 15 to 1 11.111%
12 or 2 35 to 1 30 to 1 1 3.890%
Any 7 5 to 1 4 to 1 16.667%
Any Craps 8 to 1 7 to 1 < 11.111%
Big 6 or Big 8 6 to 5 1 to 1 9.090%
Field Bet 19 to 1 7 1 to 1 (2 to 1 on 2,12)5.263%
You can see from the above list that many craps bets are crappy, to put it in plain gamblese. What's worse, some casinos, knowing the stupidity of the players, have increased their margin of thievery on some of the above bets by playing games with the English language. Thus, in Las Vegas many casinos will pay 30 for 1 on the one roll 12 or 2 bet instead of 30 to 1. What this means is the player receives 30 units back for his bet should he win but included in this 30 units is his original one unit bet! On the 30 to 1 proposition, you receive 31 units back— your 30 unit win plus your one unit bet. This simply makes the proposition have a greater percentage in favor of the house—a whopping 16.667 percent! Still more robber-baronly, some of the Mississippi riverboats pay off at 29 for one—a hideous 19.44 percent in favor of the plantation..ah, I mean, the house. You will find the same shenanigans existing on the video-craps machines.
Now, what does an edge of, say, 19.44 percent actually mean? Bluntly, for every $1,000 you bet on that proposition, you will lose $194.40 in the long run. Not a very attractive proposition is it? So watch for the "for" when you bet and remember that this "for" always includes the original bet in its payout.
However, many video-craps games give the players a break when it comes to the Field bet, which is a bet that the next roll will be one of the following numbers: 2,3,4,9,10,11,12. The usual payout is even money if any one of the numbers hit and two to one if the 2 or 12 is hit. This effectively gives the house an edge of 5.26 percent. In video-craps it is not unusual to see the 12 (or 2) being paid off at three to one. This cuts the house edge on the field to 2.56 percent. Considering the very high vigorish on the average slot machine and even most video-poker machines, this is not such a bad bet. If you were to play the Field exclusively you would be playing a machine that returned 97.44 percent of all money put in it. Not a bad machine. However, there is a much better way to play video craps than even this enhanced Field bet.
Side bets aside, in reality, craps is a simple game—as it must be to lure all the fish who play it. It is largely a mathematically-oriented game completely based on a given number's probability of appearance in 36 rolls and/or its relationship to the probability of the seven appearing. Unless there is something wrong with the machine, the video version of the game is based purely on probability theory based on a random number generator—in our case, the shooter-in-the-machine! The following chart gives the numbers that can be made from two dice, each numbered one through six; how many ways these numbers are made, and the combinations that compose them. Remember that there are six sides to each die and thus 36 possible combinations that can be made from two dice.
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The pay structure of video craps reflects the pay structure of regular craps in most cases. That is, you are betting in relation to the seven's probability to show or, in the case of one-roll bets, the odds of that particular number being thrown in 36 trials. Thus, most craps bets are not even money affairs but offer interesting yet rarely generous odds.
But aren't the odds always fixed and based on pure mathematics?
Yes and no.
Unfortunately, as many of you know, there is a difference between "true odds" and "casino odds." In that difference lies the casinos' profits.
The true odds of a bet are based upon the probability of that particular event happening. For example, the number four can be made in three different ways with two dice—3:1; 2:2; 1:3—and thus it will theoretically come up once every 12 times because there are 36 possible combinations on two six-sided dice—6 x 6 = 36. So the true odds against a four coming up on the next roll are always 11 to one.
The true odds of the number seven coming up (and as you know the number seven is the single most significant number in the game) are five to one because the seven can be made six ways: 6:1; 5:2; 4:3; 3:4; 2:5; 6:1. Six goes into 36 six times and thus the odds are always 5 to one against a seven being the next number rolled.
You always get the true odds against something by figuring how many times an event won't occur as opposed to how many times the event will occur. (You get the odds for something the opposite way!) The seven won't be rolled 30 times in 36 rolls but it will be rolled six times. Thus, the odds against a seven are 30 to 6, or 5 to one! That's because six goes into six once and six goes into 30 five times.
Another thing to remember about probability and odds-making is this: we are only talking the theoretical likelihood of an event and not the predictive likelihood of an event. Theoretically, the seven will show six times for every 36 rolls but in actuality it might show ten times, or no times on the next 36 rolls. However, the longer the dice are rolled, as the total rolls approach the millions and billions, you will start to see numbers coming up with a frequency close to their probability. Probability theory is indicative and not predictive in the short run fluctuations of a game of chance.
Now, if the casinos were offering a fair game, theoretically at the end of an infinite number of rolls of the dice, neither the casino nor the player would be ahead. Everyone would be tied.
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